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While what passes for economic debate in this country ranges from whether there will be a recession, to whether we will have a budget deficit (both a big yes), the freight train that is running down the tunnel towards us in the shape of an Asian economic slum, is moving closer at faster speed.

Yesterday Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan appeared on TV and confirmed there would be a “temporary budget deficit”.

No once did he or his questioner look at what is happening in Asia: Mr Swan did mention slowing China, but slumping Japan or slowing South Korea didn’t rate a mention at all. That’s a pity because the news from both countries was terrible.

“You’ve seen a marked slowing in China, and, of course, we’ve seen the unwinding of the mining boom. In the past four or five years, that’s produced a surge of revenue to the Australian nation and of course to our budget bottom line.” Mr Swan said on the Nine Network.

“But if you look at the carnage on the stock market, what’s happened with commodity prices, generally slowing growth, what’s happening with company profitability, I think you’ll see a very big hit to our budget bottom line.

“For example, I think company taxation could be down as much as $50 billion over four years as a consequence of the global recession. Of course, what that means is, because of the unwinding of China, the global recession; it will be inevitable that Australia has a temporary budget deficit.”

But the cover of the current Asian edition of The Economist magazine was headlined: “Asia’s Shock, Where the crisis is hitting hardest.”

It was written before new bad news on industrial production for December from Japan and South Korea, or first and third largest export destinations.

The magazine said: “The scale and speed of that downturn is breathtaking, and broader in scope than in the financial crisis of 1997-98.

“China’s GDP, which expanded by 13% in 2007, scarcely grew at all in the last quarter of 2008 on a seasonally adjusted basis. In the same quarter Japan’s GDP is estimated to have fallen at an annualised rate of 10%, Singapore’s at 17% and South Korea’s at 21%.

“Industrial-production numbers have fallen even more dramatically, plummeting in Taiwan, for example, by 32% in the year to December.”

It’s a pity Mr Swan wasn’t asked about the impact of the terrible figures on Australian exports because the toll will be considerable.

It is now clear it’s not the Global Financial Crisis that is going to hit us in Australia, it’s Asia’s economic slump that will whack us hardest of all, whether China rebounds or not. If it does, that will only soften part of the blow.

Friday the Japanese Government reported that industrial production fell 9.6% in December. South Korea’s fell by the same figure to be down nearly 19% over the year.

Japan’s unemployment rate jumped to 4.4% from 3.9%, the biggest jump in 41 years.

The Government said household spending fell 4.6% in December, the 10th fall in a row as Japanese consumers refuse to open their wallets.

Japan is our biggest export market, taking around $34 billion in shipments in the year to June, 2008.

The drop in Japanese industrial production followed the 35% plunge in exports in the month and a sharp fall in household spending, while unemployment rose.

The record plunge followed the previous record set in November which was originally forecast at an 8.1% fall, then revised down to 8.5%.

That holds out the prospect that the December figure could reach an unheard of 10% cut.

Japanese industrial production has fallen by over 30% since September. No wonder more and more companies are warning of rising losses and starting job cuts in Japan and globally.

The market had been forecasting an 8.9% fall. That’s gloomy number for a forecast, but gets worse. The government re-did its forecasts for January to a 9% drop and February, down another 5%.

In all, that knocks nearly a third off Japan’s output since September.

Macquarie Bank’s Tokyo analysts said it put Japanese output back at 1983 levels.

The figures released Friday also showed a rise in business stocks of unsold goods, which points to further slumps in output in coming months (As does the surge in inventories in the US in the December quarter).

For carmakers, production is forecast to hit just 50% of last year’s levels. Every major sector behind Japan’s export machine is being hurt.

But Japan is not the only Asian economy being battered. South Korean output fell 18.6% year-on-year in December, the economy contracted in the closing months of the year, as did Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

It was South Korea’s industrial output largest ever monthly drop.

Annual production plunged 18.6% from a year ago, following a 14% drop in November, the National Statistics Office said.

December output fell 9.6% from November as major Korean companies cut output to cope with cooling demand.

The International Monetary Fund forecast this week that the Japanese economy would contract by 2.6% this year, the worst among the major industrialised countries outside of the UK. These latest figures confirm the severity of that forecast.

The Bank of Japan has forecast consumer prices will fall for two consecutive financial years to March 2011.
The bank last week re-wrote its forecasts for Japanese growth next year and admitted that GDP was likely to shrink by about 2% in the year to March 31.

The slowdown in Japan is being felt well beyond its ports.

Production at the UK factory of Japanese motor giant Honda plant in Swindon stopped at end of Saturday’s until June 1.

The 4200 workers will receive their full basic pay for the first two months, reducing to 60% for the rest of the shutdown. More factories in Japan and around the world will follow.

In recent weeks, electronics manufacturers and consumer end users such as Sony have reported savage declines in demand.

Electronics giant NEC said it was slashing 20,000 jobs worldwide to cope with the economic crisis and forecast a loss of $US3.2 billion. Hitachi said it stood to lose $US7.8 billion the March year and announced it would cut up to 7,000 jobs.

All Nippon Airways, Japan’s second-biggest airline, said it now also expected a loss for the current fiscal year.

Honda Motor said net profit in the third quarter was down 89% and it issued its 4th profit downgrade for the year.

The country’s second-largest bank, Mizuho Financial Group, announced losses of $US565 million in the nine months to December.

“Toshiba expects to report a record US3.2 billion net loss this year while Sony is forecasting a US2.9 billion.

Back home in Australia and the financial crunch has seen foreign banks cut their lending to Australian businesses, which in turn have been cutting borrowings as they start battening down the hatches.

The news of the slump in the highly important business lending came from the Reserve Bank’s credit growth figures for December and 2008.

They revealed that if anything, the credit crunch and economic slowdown have already taken a firm grip on lending and our financial system.

The Reserve Bank revealed that lending to Australian consumers and businesses shrank last month for the first time since 1992, with the slowdown in loans in foreign currencies a big part of that development.

“The fall in total credit in December reflected a fall in business credit, which is estimated to have contracted by 1.1 per cent. This reflected a fall in foreign currency denominated lending,” the RBA said.

That development alone will help the RBA cut rates by at least 1% on Tuesday, or even more. It was the first drop in business lending for years.

As well there was a sharp fall of 9.1 points in the latest reading of the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence poll. The index’s reading of 92 is 26.6 points down from this time a year ago.

“Today more than half of Australians 61% (up 10%) expect “bad times” for Australia economically over the next 12 months compared to just 13% (down 2%) of Australians that expect “good times” economically,” Morgan said in commentary on the poll result.

“Australians are also increasingly worried about their family’s financial situation over the next 12 months with 25% (up 6%) of Australians expecting their family to be “worse off financially” this time next year compared to 32% (down 4%) of Australians that expect their family to be “better off financially.”

The RBA’s credit figures, especially the slump in business lending and the reason for it, justifies the move by the Federal Government to set up various funds to replace loans and lending to property, cars and other sectors that might be threatened by the exit of foreign lenders from the Australian market.

Total credit fell 0.3% in December from the previous month, according to Reserve Bank of Australia figures out today. That was after a 0.4% rise in November.

The news took the market by surprise, as economists had been forecasting a 0.5% month-on-month gain. For 2008, total credit grew by 6.7% higher, compared with an expectation of a 7.5% increase.

The surprise slump in lending fell largely in the business sector, which fell 1.1% (down 5.2% over the year, thanks in part to the fall in margin lending as the stockmarket plunged).

Housing lending rose 0.4% for an annual rate of 7.6%. There are signs the first home buyers grant given in the $10.4 billion budget stimulus is working. But the annual rate was still the lowest for over a decade.

After falling in December, business credit was up 8% over the year, but down by around two thirds from the 23.8% rate in December, 2007.

Seeing business spending had been holding up the economy as personal spending and housing credit fell, it’s a real worry if the slump continues into the early months of this year, or is made worse by more foreign banks cutting lending that can’t be replaced locally.

We will find out Friday what the RBA thinks the outlook for the economy is with its first Monetary Policy State of the year. We should though, get a hint when it chops rates by at least 1% tomorrow.

Finally here’s what The Economist had to say in the last paragraph of its leader in the current edition.

“If emerging Asia needs a warning of the dangers of relying on exports, it need look no further than Japan.

“Japan’s decade-long stagnation ended in 2002, thanks to a boom in exports, especially to China.

“Now, largely because of its failure to tackle the root causes of weak domestic demand, it is taking more of an economic hiding than any other rich country.”

“Japan used to see itself as the lead goose in a regional flight formation, showing the way to export-led prosperity. It is time for the other geese to break ranks.”

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